Personal Loans For Bad Credit Management: Clearing Your Debts Fast

The solution to mounting money owed is something even debtor searches for, however the hassle is compounded whilst the finances needed to alleviate the stress are not forthcoming. This is when a private mortgage for awful credit control and debt clearance is most wished. But with horrific credit score scores, what are the chances of a a hit loan software?

Most creditors are very careful when it comes to thinking about bad credit score debtors for loans. While no credit check approval tactics do exist for small loans, large sums reason creditors to take a look at an software tons extra intently. But, getting mortgage approval to clear money owed is different to different loans, due to the fact the reason is a effective one.

Still, loan approval is in no way assured and so it’s far well worth noting something of the things candidates can do to enhance their probabilities of having the green light. And if the mortgage application may be suitably bolstered, the non-public loan is more likely to be secured.

Qualifying For A Personal Loan

It would possibly appear unfair that an software for an car loan, for example, may additionally see their efforts fail, however someone seeking a big private loan for terrible credit control purposes can see their efforts prevail. But without a doubt, the reason is best a part of the approval procedure.

Qualifying for a loan rests on other things, inclusive of age (over 18), nationality (US citizen) and employment reputation (complete-time for as a minimum 6 months). It is likewise vital to offer bank details. This makes the switch of funds greater handy, with cash becoming available within 12 hours of the application being submitted.

The conditions mentioned above are critical, and failure to fulfill them is certain to ruin any chances of approval. But getting loan approval to clean debts is an admirable cause and some creditors will take that cause strongly into consideration. In truth, it could be the component that swings the decision in favor of granting the non-public loan.

Advancing Your Approval Chances

But what may be finished to safely enhance the possibilities of loan approval? Well, there are  chief movements that may be of first rate price while in search of big private loans for horrific credit management. Namely, they’re to improve your credit score rating, and discover a cosigner.

Improving your credit score can handiest be completed in a single manner – paying up any first-rate software bills or money owed. It would possibly appear peculiar to clean debts earlier than looking for mortgage approval to clear debts, however in this situation clearing even small loans can do the trick.

An clean-to-get $500 payday mortgage can deliver arrears updated, or can assist clear a credit score card invoice. These small payments tell the lender of your intentions, convincing them the larger private mortgage could be used for the right reasons.

Advantages Of A Cosigner

The 2nd circulate is to discover a cosigner, and in lots of approaches this is the key flow to make. A cosigner acts as a guarantor, promising to make the specified month-to-month repayments inside the event the borrower is unable to. This level of guarantee is valuable whilst in search of a large private mortgage for terrible credit score.

The impact is to nearly get rid of the chance concerned within the mortgage for the lender. This way the interest price is reduced and the mortgage restrict is raised. And since the purpose is to comfy mortgage approval to clear money owed, it’s miles the catalyst to a entire alternate in fortunes.

Still, now not simply anybody is appropriate as a cosigner. Lenders insist that the candidate have an terrific credit score records and a large sufficient income to make the repayments on the non-public loan, if important.

Personal finance in a "refreshing" new light

Like mission control for your money, Mint finally puts all of your financial information in one place. And did I mention it’s free?

In less than an hour I was able to link with my sixteen cash, investment and loan accounts to Mint. In just a couple of hours I had classified my previous 90 days of transactions into spending and budget categories.

After that initial investment of time, has proved again and again to be well worth the effort. I spend about ten minutes a week classifying the receipts when I put them in the checkbook ledger, and I’ve been able to stick with it.

Once all of my spending was coded into categories, I was able to set up a budget. I could even compare to similar users (anonymously) with others in my geographic area. Now when I approach my budget cap I receive a (optional) text message to my mobile phone and an email warning.

Three months later, I’ve twice slashed my food budget in half without making a conscious effort to do so. Just knowing what we’re spending helps control costs. Thinking of ordering desert? If you’re an iPhone user, you can take a look at your ‘dining out’ budget on the spot and see if you’re in a place for that splurge.

Mint also continues to get better all the time. Thanks Mint, for adding asset trackers this past week. For those of us whose assets are tied up in real estate equity, cars or concert posters, it’s nice to open and see a positive number at the bottom of the sidebar under “net worth.” also offers a feature for those of us that may need to reevaluate our financial choices. The free software is free for a reason. There’s some sponsorship to It’s nicely confined to an extra tab and not forced on you via popups or offensive emails. It looks at your spending and savings habits and suggests products that may be a better fit. Some of these I’m even considering switching to.

Mint’s interface is so easy to understand and easy to read that yesterday, when my fourth grader came home and said she’d learned about “good and bad kinds of interest” in math class we opened up Mint for clearer examples of interest at work for and against our family’s budget.

If is reading, I do have a few suggestions for improvement. However they are so minor that I hesitate to mention here for fear anyone may be discouraged from trying for themselves.

In the “spend space” I would like to see an “all spending” category added. I want to see historically how I’ve reduced my spending month-to-month since joining Mint. I know I have, but the charts are psychologically rewarding.

I’d love to see an application that downloaded the value of the stack of savings bonds I have stashed in a safe deposit box. I know that the treasury offers an app online to valuate class EE bonds with the serial numbers. It would be great to be able to store my bond info there too. But don’t bother if I’m the only person who still has bonds.

Who wouldn’t love to see an online bill paying option come to Mint one day? I go to mint to see when my credit card bill is due and how much I should pay towards it. It would be really nice to pay it from there.

I recommend without reservation, especially for those like me who’ve struggled with maintaining their household budget or tracking their spending. We all know we should—-but it’s easier said than done. Give it a shot—you have nothing to loose. I’m feeling Minty. Are you?

Note: Mint isn’t the only player in this business. Wesabe is similar. My review of Wesabe will be on its way to Prosper Lending Review shortly.

Jessica Ward is a freelance writer based in the Seattle area.

Financial Literacy Among the Young

I want to write this time about financial literacy among young people. Olivia Mitchell, from the Wharton School; Vilsa Curto, from the Education Innovation Laboratory at Harvard; and I have just published a paper in the Journal of Consumer Affairs that describes the results from the responses to three questions that we added to the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth in 2007-2008. Respondents to this survey are 23-28 years old.

These young consumers must confront complicated financial decisions in today’s demanding financial environment, and financial mistakes made early in life can be costly. Young people often find themselves carrying large amounts of student loan or credit card debt, and such early entanglements can hinder their ability to accumulate wealth or to choose their desired job. To examine how well equipped young people are to make financial decisions, we assessed knowledge of basic concepts: the ability to do a 2% calculation and the understanding of how inflation and risk diversification work.

We have three major findings:

1. Financial literacy is low among young adults. Only 27% of people age 23-28 can answer three basic questions about interest rates, inflation, and risk diversification.
2. There are large gender differences in financial literacy. Young women know much less than do young men about basic financial concepts. In another survey, we found large gender gaps in financial literacy among older respondents (51 and older), and this recent work tells us that these differences hold when we look at young people.
3. Financial literacy is influenced by parents. Those who are financially literate are more likely to have college-educated parents (in particular, college-educated mothers) and to have parents who had stocks and retirement savings when these young adults were growing up (when they were 12 to 17 years old).

I want to stress the third finding: family background is found to have a strong impact on financial literacy. A college-educated male whose parents had stocks and retirement savings when he was a teenager was about 45 percentage points more likely to know about risk diversification than a female with less than a high school education whose parents did not own retirement or risky assets. In other words, financial knowledge appears to be much higher for those who grow up with parents who are financially sophisticated.

This research is consistent with the findings from the Financial Capability Survey, the results of which were released last December by Secretary Geithner together with Secretary Duncan. That survey also documents very low levels of financial knowledge, particularly among the young.

These are unpleasant findings. We have put people in charge of many important financial decisions. People must decide how much to save for retirement and how to invest that savings, yet people do not appear to understand how to diversify risk; individuals are bombarded with credit card offers, yet we are learning that many people do not know how compound interest works, so cannot calculate how their debt will grow. Research has shown that financial illiteracy can be linked to problems with debt, lack of participation in the stock market, lack of retirement planning, and lower wealth accumulation. If we do not address financial illiteracy among young people and if we do not equip young people with the tools they need to make sound financial decisions, we may pay the cost down the road.

I am worried about the implications of these findings. If financial literacy is learned at home, many young people will begin their lives at a disadvantage, as not everybody comes from a college educated family or from a family that has stocks and retirement savings. In other words, inequality may start at the very beginning of the economic life if we do not offer everybody an opportunity to learn financial literacy outside of their homes. This is one reason why it is important that our schools incorporate financial literacy into their curricula.

In my work as a college professor, I am surrounded by young people. Last month, as we bid farewell to the Dartmouth class of 2010, I could not help but wonder whether we have provided all that is needed for these students to start on their journey into adulthood. Most of them will start a job, open a new bank account, rent an apartment, get more credit cards, pay down their student loans, donate to their college (ahem . . .), and pay taxes. Are they ready?

Five Ways To Get a Free Credit Score (No Trials)

Credit Sesame
Every month, Credit Sesame can offer you a credit score based on your Experian credit report. They also offer tips to improve your score and qualify for a mortgage

CreditKarma is an ad-supported site that offers you the ability to check your credit score daily, called a Transrisk score, based on your TransUnion credit report. The score range is the same as FICO, from 300-850. You don’t get your credit report details, but you do get a few tips on what recent changes to your credit report have impacted your score.

Equifax Credit Score Card
The Equifax Credit Score Card comes directly from Equifax and provides a free credit score range of Low (280-559), Below Average (560-659), Average (660-724), Above Average (725-759), and High (760-850). It’s called the Equifax Risk Score. FICO has a range of 300-850, and this range is 280-850 so you don’t really have to do any scaling. It doesn’t provide any specific data from your Equifax credit report, but it does include a short summary of any negative factors that you may have on your report.

Prosper Person-to-Person Lending
Prosper Lending provides a free credit grade for prospective borrowers, based on your Experian credit data. If you don’t actually finalize the application for the loan, they will not check your credit. They do offer some good rates on personal loans, if you are looking to consolidate credit card debts.

LendingClub Person-to-Person Lending
Similar to Prosper, if you start an application to become a borrower at they will check your credit on your behalf to find out what rate they will charge you. Instead of a numerical score, you will get a grade like “A2″ or “B3″. Then you can use the table below to determine your credit score range. For example, A2 would indicate a score range of 747-769. It is also based on your TransUnion credit report.

You will need to provide your personal information and Social Security number to these companies, naturally, so be comfortable with that. None of these methods by themselves will affect your credit score as you are requesting them for yourself.

Free Weekly Stock Market Prediction and Forecast for Last week of May 2009 : 25th May 2009 to 29th May 2009

Prime Minister along with 15-20 ministers will take oath on 22nd May 2009.

Who is likely to get what in Cabinet 2009:

* Home Minister – P Chidambaram

* Finance Minister – Pranab Mukherjee

* Defence Minister – A K Antony

* Foreign Minister – Salman Khursheed, Kamal Nath or SM Krishna

* Railways Minister – Mamata Banerjee

* HRD Minister – Kapil Sibal

* Agriculture Minister – Sharad Pawar

* Parliamentary Affairs – Ghulam Nabi Azad

* Petroleum Minister – Murli Deora

* Other Ministers – Ambika Soni, Praful Patel, Meira Kumar

UPA government 2009
New UPA government has heralded good times for Indian bourses. NSE Nifty gained highest ever in a week and BSE Sensex it was a best week since March 1992.

4167 is Crucial support.

For the past three days sessions the Sensex has made lower tops and lower bottoms. The Nifty now has support at 4167. If 4167 breaks, then puts need to be bought in the Nifty at the 4100 strike price. Today being a Friday, a close above 4250 will be considered good and anything below 4200 will be seen awful on the weekly charts.

Prediction’s Came True –
We have predicted in post – ASTRO ALERT
See the Power of Astrological calculation we will see 10% to 15% hike from current Levels – SENSEX 1200 points – NIFTY 360 points.
High trend may continue for week and may on the path to 16,000 points in coming period in Indian Stock Market.Last week of May 2009 will start from 25th May 2009 and will end on 29th May 2009.

Planetary position during Last week of May 2009
Sun will transit from Taurus.
Retrograde Mercury will transit from Taurus.
Venus will transit from Pisces.
Moon will transit from Taurus, Gemini and Cancer.
Mars will transit from Aries.
Rahu will transit from Capricorn.
Jupiter will transit from Aquarius.
Saturn will transit in Leo.
Ketu will transit in Cancer.


Stock Market Prediction for 25th May 2009

Transiting Moon will be passing through Taurus Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in separating aspect with Transiting Saturn, indicates Market may slide down from opening up to 11.00, Again Market may recover from bottom. Some selling pressure will come in Indian Stock Market. Market will be volatile, so be careful.

Stock Market Prediction for 26th May 2009

Transiting Moon will be passing through Gemini Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Ketu, indicates Market may under selling pressure up to 11.10. Some recovery may come but volatility will be there, so be careful.

Stock Market Prediction for 27th May 2009

Transiting Moon will be passing through Gemini Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Saturn, indicates some good news may come. Market may steady or up side after 11.15. Market may go down between 13.25 to 14.57.

Stock Market Prediction for 28th May 2009

Transiting Moon will be passing through Gemini Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Ketu, indicates Market may steady or up side up to 11.00. Market may slide from higher level but BSE SENSEX and NSE NIFTY may recover after 14.15, Be careful and Be cautious.

Stock Market Prediction for 29th May 2009

Transiting Moon will be passing through Gemini Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Saturn, indicates Market may steady or up side up to 12.22. Market may slide from higher level, Some selling pressure will come in Indian Stock Market but BSE SENSEX and NSE NIFTY may recover after 14.45, Be careful and Be cautious after 14.12, so be careful.

Technical Analysis
Resistance Level for Nifty will be 4270, 4319, 4324 and 4362. Support Level for Nifty will be 4224, 4212, 4139 and 3918.

Resistance Level for Sensex will be 14043, 14230, 14302 and 14405. Support Level for Sensex will be 13853, 13664, 13602 and 13480.

We suggest the investor to book profit at every rise and exit.


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3/2/2015: Japanification of Europe?

One of the main narratives for understanding European economy’s longer term growth outlook has been the risk of Japanification: a long-term stagnation punctuated by recessionary periods and accompanied by low inflation and or deflationary episodes and pressures. I posted on the topic before (see for example here: and generally think we are witnessing some worrying similarities with Japan, driven primarily by longer-term trends: debt overhangs across real economy, nature of debt allocations (concentrated in less productive legacy assets, such as property in some countries, physical capital in others) and, crucially, demographics-impacted political and institutional paralysis.

One recent paper, titled “The Macroeconomic Policy Challenges of Balance Sheet Recession: Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis” by Gunther Schnabl (CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 4249 CATEGORY 7:MONETARY POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, MAY 2013) sets out the stage for looking into the direct comparatives between Japan’s experience and that of the EU.

Per Schnabl, “Japan has not only moved through a boom-and-bust cycle …almost 20 years earlier than Europe but has also made important experiences with a crisis management in form of monetary expansion, unconventional monetary policy making, fiscal expansion and recapitalization of banks. Although Japan has reached the (close to) zero interest rate environment more than a decade earlier than Europe and gross general government debt (in terms of GDP) has gone far beyond the levels, which are today prevalent in Europe, growth continues to stagger.”

In other words, as we know all too well, Japan presents a ‘curious’ case of an economy where neither monetary, nor fiscal policies appear to work, even when applied on truly epic scale.

What Schnabl finds is very intriguing. “The comparison between the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the origins of exuberant booms, the crisis patterns, the crisis therapies, and the (possible) effects of the crisis therapies shows that despite significant differences important similarities exist. With the growing socialisation of risk Europe follows the Japanese economic policy decision making pattern, with – possibly – a similar outcome for European growth and welfare perspectives. The gradual decline in real income in Japan should be incentive enough for a turnaround in economic policy making in both Europe and Japan.”

The key to the above is in the phrase “With the growing socialisation of risk Europe follows the Japanese economic policy decision making pattern” which of course has several implications:

  • Mutualisation / Socialisation of risk is actually mutualisation and, thus, socialisation of debt – clearly suggesting that the path toward debt deleveraging is not the one we should be taking. The alternative path to debt deleveraging via mutualisation / socialisation is debt restructuring.
  • To date, no European leader or organisation has come up with a viable alternative to the non-viable idea of ‘internal devaluation’. In other words, to-date we face with a false dichotomous choice: either mutualise debt or deflate debt. Neither is promising when one looks at the Japanese experience. And neither is promising when it comes to European experience either. See more on this here: and
  • ECB policies activism – the alphabet soup of various programmes launched by Frankfurt – is still treating the symptom (liquidity or credit supply to the real economy) instead of the disease (debt overhang). And the outcome of this activism is likely to be no different from Japan: debt overhang growing, economy stagnating, asset prices and valuations actively concealing the problem, data detaching from reality.

Here are some slides from Schnabl’s November 2014 presentation on the topic:

So here’s the infamous monetary bubble / illusion:

And the associated public sector balloon (do ignore some of the peaks that were down to banks rescue measures and you still have an upward trend):

And an interesting perspective on the Japanification scenario for Europe:

Happy demanding more Government involvement in the economy, folks… for this time, all the monetary, fiscal, regulatory, institutional, propagandistic etc ‘easing’ will be, surely, different… very different… radically different…

5/2/2012: Global & Irish Economic Conditions: UCC, January 2013

“It is not true that people stop pursuing dreams because they grow old, they grow old because they stop pursuing dreams.” Gabriel Garcí­a Márquez

Nassim Nicholas Taleb was asked whether public protests in Athens is a Black Swan Event. He replied: “No. The real Black Swan Event is that people are not rioting against the banks in London and New York.”

“Getting worse more slowly is not the same as getting better”, Prof. Brad DeLong

3/4/2012: Sunday Times 1/4/2012 – Deep Reforms, not Exports-led Recovery, are needed

This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times article from 1/4/2012.

After four years of the crisis, there are four empirical
regularities to be learned from Ireland’s economic performance. The first one
is that the idea of internal devaluation, aka prices and wages deflation, as
the only mechanism to attain debt deleveraging, is not working. The second is
that the conventional hypothesis of a V-shaped recovery from the structural
crisis, manifested in economic growth collapse, debt overhang and assets bust,
is a false one. The third fact is that Troika confidence in our ability to meet
‘targets’ has little to do with the real economic performance. And the fourth is
that exports-led recovery is a pipe dream for an economy in which exports
growth is driven by FDI.
Restoring growth requires structural change that can
facilitate private companies and entrepreneurs search for new catalysts for
investment and consumption, jobs creation and exports.
For anyone with any capacity to comprehend economic reality,
Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) results for Q4 2011, showing the second
consecutive quarterly contraction in GDP and GNP, should have come as no
surprise. In these very pages, months ago I stated that all real indicators –
Purchasing Managers indices, retail sales, consumer and producer prices, property
prices, industrial turnover figures, banking sector activity, and even our
external trade statistics – point South. Yet, the Government continues to
believe in Troika reports and statistical aberrations produced by superficial
policy and methodological changes.
The longer-range facts about Ireland’s ‘successes’ in
managing the crisis, revealed by the QNA, are outright horrifying. In real
(inflation-adjusted) terms, in 2011, every sector of Irish economy remains
below the pre-crisis peak levels. Agriculture, forestry and fishing is down
almost 22%, Industry is down 3%, Distribution, Transport and Communications
down 17%, Public Administration and Defence down 6%, Other Services (accounting
for over half of our GDP) are down 8%. In Q4 2011, Personal Consumption was 12%
below Q4 2007 levels, Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation was 57% down on
2007. The only positive side to Irish economic performance compared to
pre-crisis levels was Exports of goods and services, which were just 1.2% ahead
of Q4 2007 level.
Meanwhile, factor income outflows out of Ireland – profits
transfers by the MNCs – were up 19% relative to pre-crisis levels. Despite a
rise of 0.7% year on year, Irish GDP expressed in constant prices is still 9.5%
below 2007 levels. Our GNP, having contracted 2.53% year on year in 2011, is
down an incredible 14.3% on the peak. All in, Irish economy has already lost nine
years of growth in this crisis, once inflation is controlled for.
We are now three years into an exports boom and the recovery
remains wanting. Here’s why. Between 2007 and 2011 exports of goods rose €2.5
billion or just 3%, while imports of goods fell 31.3% – a decline of €19.6 billion.
Over the same period, exports of services rose €5 billion, while imports of
services increased €5.5 billion. All in, rising exports of goods and services
accounted for just 35% of the increase in Ireland’s trade surplus. Almost two
thirds of our trade surplus gains since 2007 are accounted for by collapse in
imports. Taken on its own, the dramatic fall-off in imports of goods amounts to
91% of the total change in trade surplus in Ireland.
Both the Government and the Troika should be seriously
concerned. Taken in combination with accelerating profits transfers out of
Ireland by the MNCs, these numbers mean that Irish economy is struggling with
mountains of private and public debts that exports cannot deflate.
Remember all the noises made by the external and domestic
experts about Ireland’s current account surpluses being the driver of our debt
sustainability? Last week, the CSO also published our balance of payments
statistics for 2011. In 2010, Irish current account surplus stood at a relatively
minor €761 million. In 2011, current account surplus fell to €127 million. If
the entire current account surplus were to be diverted to Government debt
repayments, it will take Ireland 579 years to bring our debt to GDP ratio to
the Fiscal Pact bound of 60%.
The immediate lesson for Ireland is that we need serious
changes in the economic fundamentals and we need them fast.
First, Ireland needs debt restructuring. We must shed
banks-related debts off the households and the Exchequer. In doing this, we
need drastic restructuring of the banking sector. Simultaneously, an equally
dramatic reform of taxation and spending systems is required to put more
incentives and resources into human capital formation and investment. Income
tax hikes must be reversed, replaced by a tax on fixed and less productive
capital – particularly land. All land, including agricultural. Entrepreneurship-retarding
USC system must be altered into a functional unemployment insurance system.
Policy supports should shift on breaking the systemic
barriers to domestic firms exporting and restructuring dysfunctional internal
services markets that are holding companies back. Public procurement changes
and markets reforms in core services – energy, water, transport, public
administration, etc – must focus on prioritising facilitation of inward and
domestic investment, entrepreneurship and jobs creation.
Delivery of health services must be separated from payment
for these services, with Government providing the latter for those who cannot
afford their own insurance. Private for-profit and non-profit sector should
take over delivery of services. Exports-focused private innovation, such as for
example International Health Services Centre proposal for remote medicine and
ICT-related R&D, should be prioritized.
In education, we need a system of competing universities,
colleges and secondary education providers. A combination of open tuition fees
plus merit and needs-based grants for domestic students will help. We should
incentivise US universities to locate their European campuses here, and shift
more of the revenue generation in the third level onto exports. In the
secondary education, we need vouchers that will encourage schools competition
for students. In post-tertiary education we need to incentivise MNCs to develop
their own corporate training programmes and services here.
This will simultaneously expand our skills-intensive exports
and provide for better linkages between formal education and, sectoral and business
training – something the current system is incapable of delivering.
One core metric we have been sliding on is sector-specific
skills. This fact is best illustrated by what is defined as internationally
traded services sector, but more broadly incorporates ICT services, creative
industries and associated support services.
Eurostat survey of computer skills in the EU27 published
this week, ranked Ireland tenth in the EU in terms of the percentage of
computing graduates amongst all tertiary graduates. Both, amongst the 16-24
years olds and across the entire adult population we score below the average
for the old Euro Area member states in all sub-categories of computer literacy.
Only 13% of Irish 16-24 year olds have ever written a computer programme –
against 21% Euro area average. Over all survey criteria, taking in the data for
16-24 year old age group, Ireland ranks fourth from the bottom just ahead of
Romania, Bulgaria and Italy in terms of our ICT-related skills.
Not surprisingly, at last week’s Digital Ireland Forum 2012
the two core complaints of the new media and ICT services sector leaders were: lack
of skills training domestically and draconian restrictions placed on companies
ability to import key skills from abroad.
The Irish economy and our society are screaming for real
change, not compliance with Troika targets and ego-stoking back-slapping
ministerial foreign trips.

On the foot of my last week’s questions concerning the role
of securitizations and covered bonds issuance by the Irish banks in restricting
banks’ ability to control the loans assets they hold on their balancesheets,
this week’s move by Moody’s Investors Services to downgrade the ratings of RMBS
(Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities) notes issued by two of the largest
securities pools in the country come as an additional warning. On March 26th,
Moody’s reduced ratings on RMBS notes issued by Emerald Mortgages and Kildare
Securities on the back of “continued rapid deterioration of the transactions,
Moody’s outlook for Irish RMBS sector; and credit quality of key parties to the
transactions [re: Irish banks] as well as structural features in place such as
amount of available credit enhancement.” The last bit of this statement
directly references the concerns with over-collateralization raised in my last
week’s note. Although Moody’s do not highlight explicitly the issue of
declining pools of collateral further available to shore up security of the
asset pools used to back RMBS notes, the language of the note is crystal clear
– Irish banks are at risk of running out of assets that can be pledged as
collateral. This, of course, perfectly correlates with the lack of suitable
collateral for LTRO-2 borrowings from the ECB by the Irish banks, other than
the Bank of Ireland last month. As rated by Moody’s, half of the covered RMBS
notes were downgraded to ‘very high credit risk’ or below and all the rest,
excluding just one, were deemed to deteriorate to ‘high credit risk’ status.
Surprisingly, the Central Bank’s Macro-Financial Review published this week
makes no mention of either the RMBS, covered bonds or the impact of
securitization vehicles on banks’ balance sheets. See no evil, hear no evil?

17/6/2014: Gas, Oil, Russia, Ukraine & Europe: couple of links

An interesting report from Bloomberg on Russia’s demand for oil exploration and production JVs with Western companies: here.
One core reference is to the new/old Bazhenov superfield which I covered before here.
Meanwhile, I commented before that Ukraine gas supply disruption is a distinct issue from the European gas supplies, as Ukraine has a separate contract relating to gas transit and this contract has always been paid in full and there are no arrears on it. Ukraine legally does not own the gas it transits. In other words, any disruption to supply of gas to Europe via Ukraine can only come from Ukrainian authorities appropriating gas that belongs to other countries. I expect this to be highly unlikely, especially since Ukraine has pumped in gas reserves sufficient to last it through mid-December 2014.
To confirm this, here is the EU Commission position on the issue of security of supply to European customers. 
And Gazprom position on the issue: “Russian gas transit supplies via Ukraine are being delivered in routine mode. The daily gas amount stands at slightly more than 185 million cubic meters. An emergency headquarters started working in Russian energy giant Gazprom, monitoring the situation every day. If Gazprom finds that gas intended for Europe is left in Ukraine, Russia will increase gas supplies via Nord Stream and Yamal-Europe projects, Miller said. The upstream throughput capacity of Ukrainian gas delivery system makes 288 billion cubic meters and the downstream one amounts to 178.5 billion cubic meters. The country’s gas transportation system consists of 72 gas compressor stations, 110 shops and 1,451 gas hubs. The length of gas pipelines makes 38,600 kilometers.

Predictably, Ukraine blames ‘terrorists’ (aka ‘separatists’) for today’s explosion. Report here. However, not known for its pro-Russian views, Euronews had to acknowledge that “…explosion was far from the violence in east Ukraine…” Never mind, we know Ukraine has no extremists on the other side of the ethnic divide… why, none at all… and none of them would ever want to do any harm to Gazprom lines to Europe… why, never, of course. It is just so slightly inconvenient that Mr Yatsenuk’s own backers – Euro Maidan – are on the record saying they are in favour of blowing up pipelines:

Nice touch there ahead of spreading uranium, and shelling Russian cities (the brave folks would obviously expect Russia to not retaliate),

Truth is – we simply do not know who blew up the pipe, and it is unlikely we will ever find out.