11/1/2015: ECB’s Favourite Inflation Expectations Indicator is Smokin…

And here’s a nice reminder courtesy of @SoberLook.com of the markets’ view of 5-year-to-10-year forward inflation expectations for the euro area:

Note: 5y/5y inflation swap basically measures expected inflation for the period of between 5 years from now and 10 years from now (5 years over 5 years from now). Here is a note on its importance to ECB policy http://www.itcmarkets.com/news-press/itc-egbs-questions-regarding-draghis-reference-to-5y5y-forward-rate-and-inflation.

Needless to say, at ECB inflation target of 2% over the next 1-2 years, we should be expecting 5y/5y to be above 2% mark, not below it. And if previous (2004-2007 period) should be our guide for growth, we should be looking at 5y/5y swap rate at around 2.4%.

Which means the ‘flashing red’ indicator for ECB is now smoking.